The Long Hello And Goodbye (15 November)

In the final week before the national election, no polls can be published; they might distort public opinion, or so the theory goes. Come the final 24 hours before the election, and everyone has to shut up and allow themselves a period of reflection before heading to the polls on Sunday to do the awful deed.

Putting a block on more polls is unnecessary; there hasn’t been a need for polls for months. PSOE’s long goodbye should go into the Guinness Book of Records for the most time it has been known that a political party would lose the next election. And badly.

Nothing has altered the path to the inevitable Partido Popular victory: not a Rubalcaba bounce when Zapatero confirmed that he knew the way the wind was blowing; not a surge of support from the right when PSOE carved up the constitution and committed the deficit requirement to law; not a wave of thanks to PSOE when ETA called it a day.

The eclipse of PSOE on Sunday will be the culmination of the process started by the credit crunch and Zapatero’s attempts to calm a nation’s fears. By saying there was no crisis, he was whistling in the dark; his delusion, a fiddling of inaction while capitalism burned. He responded too slowly, but he was damned if he did and damned if he didn’t. The game was up as soon as crisis raised its unlovely head. The story would have been the same had the PP been in government – and they know it.

Mariano Rajoy will be the next president of Spain, and president, by title and tradition going back to the nineteenth century, it is; calling him prime minister is in line with how titles normally work in a parliamentary monarchy. Rajoy’s ascendancy has been the long hello, so long in fact it is difficult to understand how he comes to still figure. Beaten by Zapatero in 2008, long dismissed as inadequate by many commentators and even members of his own party, one of them being the former PM José Maria Aznar, it is a mystery what he is doing about to take office.

Rajoy is becoming prime minister (president) by default. He has had to do nothing and say nothing. The prize has been his ever since the flames from Lehman and utterances regarding the previously unheard of subprime market first flickered across dealers’ screens. Prime minister by default and prime minister by superior force and direction. Just as the Balearics Bauzá is a puppet on a long string stretching from PP central office, so Rajoy dances to the tune of his own master. And if Rubalcaba is to be believed, that is Aznar; Aznar who has been contemptuous of his successor and now treats him as the dummy to his ventriloquism.

The electoral slogan for Rajoy is both simple and simplistic. “Súmate al cambio”. Join the change, more or less. When all else fails, and it normally does, politicians bring out the change word. It is the default slogan for a default prime minister; vote for me, I’m not the other lot. But what will Rajoy change? More pain and more austerity are not change; they are more pain and more austerity, and the electorate is heading to the polling stations to vote for masochism.

“Masoquismo” and “machismo”. Macho politics with which to confront the unions and employment conditions. Mariano as Margaret, tackling the enemy within. Change is necessary, but at what cost socially (and industrially), as Thatcher stubbornly ignored. The unions, though, have been but one part of the collusive complacency of Spain’s social capitalism model; they have been a loveably roguish pantomime villain to the Prince Charmings of successive governments of both blue and red who have flaunted the glass slippers of boom-time politics.

It was Zapatero’s misfortune to be the shoemaker who couldn’t repair the slipper. He can be accused of a lack of foresight, but foresight with hindsight is a wonderful thing; he danced to his own tune, as had previous Spanish leaders, one with an exciting boom-boom beat, but he ended up a busted flush and a boom-time rat.

Yet for all this, Zapatero helped to mould a Spain far more at ease with itself. The pain that Rajoy is about to inflict, and it is going to be painful, might just be acceptable, though by no means to all, but if he insists on a change that is a back to the future in terms of cultural, social and religious policies, he may not find the populace so willing to support him.

Come Sunday, the electorate of turkeys will vote for Christmas, and after Sunday, things will change. Just don’t expect them to be very pleasant.

Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.

Bearded Wonders And Robot Presidents

President Zapatero, he of the many nicknames, is often referred to as ZP. It makes him sound like a micro-chip, which is about right seeing as how he is the first fully automated political leader in western Europe. The ZP has been inserted into his motherboard, so he has now become Z-3PO, waving its arms around and screaming “reformas, reformas, reformas”. The Z-3PO was recently interviewed by the “Financial Times”. In the video, one can see it beaming. The original model always beamed a lot, more in confusion than simple affability. The robotic, automated version, now sensing an end to its political career, is beaming at the prospect of retirement, receiving its ex-presidential salary and writing its memoirs.

There is another reason for all the beaming. Astonishingly enough, Spain is groping its way out of recession, and Zapatero is getting the plaudits. The German “iron lady”, Angela Merkel, has been praising his efforts, thus also bolstering her fellow countrymen who do, after all, either own much of Spain or wish to sell even more of it to even more of these fellow countrymen. When pressed on quite how this miracle of recovery has come to pass, the Z-3PO is plugged in, beams a lot, and goes off on the “reformas” chant that has been programmed into its circuits.

The Z-3PO is driven by an operating system known as “New Labour”. This makes it and the party it heads, the PSOE new model non-ideologues, lean ever further away from any socialist roots. The Z-3PO, fashioned after Tony, smooth-faced, grinning, exaggerated hand movements and any policy it fancies, has taken the party so far towards the centre or in the opposite direction to that which it historically had, that it has been able to more or less tame the ogres of the unions. It may not have been a Scargill or a Clause 4 moment, but the air-traffic controllers’ strike was something of a turning-point. Even the barely reconstructed Commies of the CCOO union disapproved of their action (though admittedly they didn’t much care for the packet that the controllers were receiving.)

Taming the unions and changing labour law are crucial elements to all the “reformas”. And remarkably the unions seem prepared to go along with them, given that they have been cast, for the purposes of public consumption, in the role of pantomime villains, as opposed to those in the banking and finance sectors who should be.

The Z-3PO is quite happy with this. It will be de-commissioned in 2012, which will be something of a pity as it is at least the embodiment, as it were, of a modern political leader: wires and circuit-boards in the right place and increasingly further to the right, a clone of Blair and no facial hair. And this last bit is important.

The leadership of the new model PSOE is likely to pass to one Alfredo Rubalcaba, the beardy vice-president who bears an unnerving resemblance to Solzhenitsyn. He will be up against another beardy, the Partido Popular’s Mariano Rajoy – Mr. Grey – who succeeds in making the normally uncharismatic world of Spanish politics seem positively magnetic. Even the robotic Zapatero is full of life by comparison. What a choice faces Spain. Mr. Grey or the Gulag.

Despite having a massive lead in the polls, the Partido Popular faces a problem. Mr. Grey. We have WikiLeaks to thank for knowing that his predecessor, the little accountant José Maria Aznar, had reservations about Rajoy. A lot of people did, and still do. It seems no coincidence that, at what has been a critical period for Spain, Rajoy has been hardly anywhere to be seen. But Aznar has. He has re-emerged, minus, in proper contemporary manner, his old moustache and with his hair even darker than it became during his time as president, so much so that his head is like a Bertie Bassett’s, with a thick layer of liquorice on top.

The re-appearance of the lush Aznar barnet is a reminder of a time when a Spanish leader did command some international kudos. Zapatero has just about managed to acquire some of his own. He may have performed an almost complete about-turn on most things, except his praiseworthy and liberal social reforms, but he seems to be restoring some Spanish credibility. It may have all required him being re-programmed, but he has retained, amidst all the “reformas”, an affability. It is not one that could be said to be shared by Rajoy, the likely next president, a zomboid, and bearded, Borg.

Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.